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刘涛、王洁晶:Bringing city size in understanding the permanent settlement intention of rural–urban migrants in China

2019.11.28

作者:刘涛、王洁晶


王洁晶|中国人民大学公共管理学院助理教授

来源:Population Space Place, First published: 24 November 2019. DOI: 10.1002/psp.2295

【Abstract】China`s recent hukou reform provides opportunities for rural–urban migrants to acquire formal citizenship and for the country`s urbanisation to step into a fair and humanistic stage. However, the between-city variation in migrants` intention of hukou transfer and the heterogeneity of its influencing factors have rarely been examined. These research gaps make it impossible to the rationality and effectiveness of the localised hukou entry criteria formulated by city governments. In this paper, we addressed the gaps by using nationwide large-sample survey data and a multilevel modelling approach with particular focus on the effects of city size. Results confirmed the higher willingness of migrants in larger cities for hukou transfer, which is in sharp contradiction with the small-city orientation of the current hukou reform. Our findings further verified the greater preference of well-educated migrants for large cities than less educated groups, implying an accelerated concentration of talents in leading cities. This research demonstrates the importance of the between-city variation perspective in understanding the variegated thoughts of rural–urban migrants, the effectiveness of localised public policies, and the future of China`s migrant-dominated model of urbanisation.

【Key words】rural, urban migrants, settlement intention, hukou transfer, multilevel model, China

【研究介绍】近年来,随着户籍改革的持续推进,农村流动人口在城市落户的门槛得到了有效降低。然而,农村流动人口在城市落户的意愿并没有预料中强烈,有学者称之为“户口疑问”(hukou puzzle)。本文认为,要理解这一疑问需要关注落户意愿在不同城市之间的差异。我国户口制度一项重要的改革是将确定落户门槛的权力下放给了城市政府,不同政府根据自身实际情况确定落户制度。因此,有必要研究不同城市流动人口落户意愿的异质性。本文基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查的数据,建立多层线性模型检验了流动人口落户意愿的影响因素,重点关注了城市规模的影响。结果发现,城市规模是影响流动人口落户意愿的主要因素,规模大的城市流动人口落户意愿显著大于中小城市。而且我们发现,在诸多个人社会经济因素中,只有教育水平对城市规模的影响具有显著的调节作用。这一发现意味着,以教育水平为代表的人力资本是影响流动人口是否有意愿在大城市落户的原因,也表明高人力资本的流动人口向规模较大城市的集聚,可能会带来不同规模城市人力资本禀赋差异的进一步拉大。在理论上,本文表明中国流动人口的研究中的不少问题需要从城市差异的视角来解释,这样才有可能更好的研究流动人口的迁移、落户、市民化、公共服务本地化等问题。

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