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许光建、许坤、 卢倩倩:预期寿命延长促进经济增长了吗*——基于全球121个经济体的实证分析

2021.03.19

作者:许光建, 许坤, 卢倩倩

来源:《经济理论与经济管理》


摘要: 随着社会进步和生活水平的不断提升,人口预期寿命逐渐延长,全球人口老龄化程度亦不断提高,但这并非意味着人口红利的消失。本文基于1996—2017年121个经济体的面板数据,使用动态面板GMM估计方法分析了预期寿命与经济增长之间的关系。实证研究发现:(1)预期寿命延长对经济增长具有促进作用;(2)纳入收入与预期寿命的交互项后,预期寿命显示出对经济增长的制约作用,而收入水平的提高则中和了这种制约作用,带来经济增长水平的提高;(3)不同性别的预期寿命对经济增长的影响具有异质性。基于此,本文从提高居民可支配收入与提高人力资本水平方面提出了相关的政策建议。

关键词: 预期寿命, 人口红利, 人力资本, 经济增长, 收入效应

Abstract: With the social progress and the improvement of living standards, the life expectancy of the population has gradually extended, and the aging of the global population has also continued to increase. Based on the panel data of 121 economies from 1996 to 2017, this paper uses a dynamic panel GMM model to analyze the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth. Empirical research finds that: (1) the extension of life expectancy can promote economic growth; (2) after including the interactive term of income and life expectancy, life expectancy shows constraint on economic growth, while the increase in income levels moderates this effect and brings about an increase in the level of economic growth; (3) the impact of life expectancy of different genders on economic growth is heterogeneous. Based on this, this article puts forward relevant policy suggestions on increasing the disposable income of residents and strengthening education to improve the level of human capital.

Key words: life expectancy, demographic dividend, human capital, economic growth, income effect

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