Land Use Policy  (41)2014,246-259      

Based on prospect theory, we develop a theoretical framework to unify divided views on land reallocation reform in China. Our theoretical framework and empirical verification explain the driving forces behind the success of the rural land reallocation reform in China. We find that rural land reallocation reform in China is characterized by induced and imposed institutional changes. The relationship between induced and imposed institutional change is complementary instead of competing. The decision and frequency of land reallocation are affected by both local endowment and central government policy. Empirical findings also suggest that land reallocation reform in China is incremental, with interim policy targets from different stages taking gradual effect. The incremental implementation of the “No Reallocation” policy is the reason behind the widespread, diversified land reallocation practices across the country; this policy also contributes to the success of rural land reform in China. The theoretical model can be used to study a wide range of government-led institutional changes in China, such as affordable housing schemes and the National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020). (Lei Feng, Helen Bao, Yan Jiang  SSCI)

中国农村土地调整制度改革：行为经济学分析

摘要：应用行为经济学的前景理论（PT），构建分析中国农村土地调整制度变迁的理论模型，并应用中国17省调查数据进行实证检验。研究表明：中国农村土地调整制度变迁具有诱致性变迁与强制性变迁的双重特征，并且二者主要是互补而非替代关系。中国农村的土地调整决策既受地方资源禀赋特征的影响，又受中央有关政策的影响。实证分析表明，中国农地调整制度改革是渐进式的，中央政府在改革的不同时期设定不同的阶段性目标，并逐步发挥作用。正是这种中央正式规则（如“不得调地”政策）的渐进式实施特征，与地方资源禀赋特征变化的相互作用，共同决定了中国农村土地制度改革的成功，并导致了各地千差万别的土地调整实践。本文的理论模型可以进一步应用于对其他领域政府主导的产权改革（如保障性住房制度以及国家新型城镇化改革）的分析。