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The Spillovers and Heterogeneous Responses of Housing Prices: A GVAR Analysis of China`s 35 Major Cities

2015-12-18


Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy   (4) 2015 ,535-558.   
Previous literature seldom discusses city-level housing price spillovers and city-level heterogeneous responses of housing prices to interest rate shocks. This paper adopts the recently developed globe vector autoregression (GVAR) model to empirically study not only the spillovers of housing prices and real income per capita among China`s 35 major cities but also the impacts of interest rate shocks on housing prices among these cities. The empirical results show that China`s first-tier cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, have comparatively large spillovers of housing prices, while spillovers in central and western cities are not significant. The housing prices of first-tier and eastern cities are affected not only by the real income per capita of these cities themselves, but also by that of other cities to a large extent, while housing prices of central and western cities are mainly affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves. Real interest rate shocks have a smaller influence on the housing prices of central and western cities, but a greater influence on those of first-tier cities and eastern cities. Empirical studies have definite policy implications. In order to stabilize housing prices, the Chinese government should promote the regional equalization of public goods, intensify housing purchase restrictions and implement sub-regional real estate policies. Adjusting interest rate policies is also an implementable option for stabilizing housing prices. ( SSCI)


房价的外溢效应和异质性反应:基于中国35个城市的GVAR分析
摘要:以前的文献很少讨论城市层面的住房价格的外溢效应和城市层面的房价对利率冲击的异质性反应。本文采用最新开发的全球向量自回归(GVAR)模型,不仅实证研究了房价和人均收入在中国35大城市之间的外溢效应,也讨论了利率冲击对房价在这些城市的异质性影响。实证结果表明,中国的一线城市,如北京和上海,当地房价有相对较大的外溢效应,而中部和西部城市的房价外溢效应不显着。一线城市和东部城市的房价不仅受这些城市的实际收入的影响,而且在很大程度上受其他城市收入的影响,而中西部城市的房价则主要受这些城市居民的实际收入的影响。实际利率冲击对中西部城市房价影响较小,但对一线城市和东部城市的影响较大。实证研究有一定的政策含义,为稳定房价,我国政府应推进区域公共产品的均等化,在一定范围施行住房限购政策和实施分区域性房地产政策。调整利率的政策也可被视为稳定住房价格的一个可行工具。