因果推理的可信革命正在对计量经济学、统计学、生物学等学科产生深远的影响，回归实验主义传统成为殊途同归之路。政策评估既是检验因果推理的重要场景，又可以通过引入因果推理提升其科学性。本研究试图发展基于因果推理的政策评估科学，重点讨论因果推理的理论基础，即潜在结果模型、内部效度和外部效度理论、选择性偏差模型以及因果图等4种理论，并阐明不同因果推理理论的内在逻辑和一致性。同时，本文还将基于潜在结果模型，提出一个实验和准实验设计的统一框架，并结合政策评估案例进行阐述，他们为政策评估的科学性奠定了基础。对于随机实验设计，重点讨论实验室实验、调查实验和实地实验。对于准实验设计，重点讨论匹配法、双重差分、合成控制、工具变量和断点回归。查看详情>>

Existing studies investigate mobility inequality from the perspectives of accessibility and non-economic welfare. This paper proposes to analyze mobility inequality through the lens of economic welfare, which reflects the difference of passengers' willingness-to-pay and the actual fare. Based on the theory of welfare economics, this paper first defines the concept and specifies the formula of economic welfare with regards to mobility inequality. Then, economic welfare is calculated regarding the elderly's bus fare in Beijing and econometric models are estimated to examine how mobility inequality is socially and spatially distributed. Results show that those with low income and living in the low-unit-house-price communities in the city center are the marginalized group. The benefits of introducing economic welfare to mobility inequality studies include (1) it can improve the objectivity in assessing travelers' feelings and identifying marginalized groups; (2) the concept of economic welfare can directly correspond to the “sense of gain” policy initiative in China; (3) the perspective of economic welfare can inform transportation pricing policies to mitigate inequality issues. To conclude, this paper contributes to the existing literature by a new perspective of economic welfare that enriches the current dialogue of mobility inequality among the geographical, transportation, sociological and psychological researchers.查看详情>>